An Emerging Consensus About Novartis’s New Potential Blockbuster Reply

Last year it became clear that Novartis had a potential blockbuster with its new heart failure drug, LCZ696, which is an angiotensin receptor- neprilysin inhibitor (ARNi) consisting of the company’s own well-known angiotensin receptor blocker valsartan (Diovan) and a novel compound, the neprilysin inhibitor sacubitiril. The results of the PARADIGM trial, which was stopped early because of a large and highly significant reduction in cardiovascular mortality, electrified the cardiovascular community. But the trial also sparked a lot of controversy when skeptics raised questions suggesting that the results were not nearly as impressive as the investigators reported.

Following the initial excitement and discussion we are now starting to get a more measured and realistic view of the drug and the trial. In recent days two important secondary PARADIGM papers have been published. A paper in Circulation looks at the experience of trial participants who didn’t die. A paper in European Heart Journal performs some sophisticated statistical wizardry to estimate how LCZ696 would have performed against placebo instead of an active comparator. It will probably come as no surprise that both papers are highly positive. The Circulation paper shows that LCZ696 was effective in preventing progression of heart failure. The EHJ paper concludes that if it had been compared to placebo in a contemporary, otherwise well-treated population LCZ696 would have produced “striking reductions in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, as well as heart failure hospitalization.”

Far more important than these papers, in my view, are the accompanying editorials. The Circulation editorialist, Henry Krum, is an influential Australian cardiologist and the EHJ editorialist, Duke University cardiologist Rob Califf, is one of the most influential and respected cardiologists in the world…

Click here to read the full post on Forbes.

 

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